February 18th, 2012


Про науку

Despite empirical psychologists’ nominal endorsement of a low rate of false-positive findings (≤ .05), flexibility in data collection, analysis, and reporting dramatically increases actual false-positive rates. In many cases, a researcher is more likely to falsely find evidence that an effect exists than to correctly find evidence that it does not.
  Из статьи

Как пишет Gelman
We’ve all known for a long time that a p-value of 0.05 doesn’t really mean 0.05. Maybe it really means 0.1 or 0.2. But, as this paper demonstrates, that p=.05 can often mean nothing at all.

И о погоде

Забыли? А бомба продолжает тикать.
Scientists studying readings from Japanese seismic sensors have determined that there have been 20 times more quakes in the 6 months after March 2011 than in previous 9 years.

“Given that a large earthquake occurred in Iwaki not long ago, we think it is possible for a similarly strong earthquake to happen in Fukushima.”

Scientists say that there is a 70% chance of a magnitude 7.0 earthquake hitting Fukushima this year, and a 98% chance within the next 3 years.

Given that nuclear expert Arnie Gundersen says that an earthquake of 7.0 or larger could cause the entire fuel pool structure collapse, it is urgent that everything humanly possible is done to stabilize the structure housing the fuel pools at reactor number 4.

Gundersen (who used to build spent fuel pools) explains that there is no protection surrounding the radioactive fuel in the pools. He warns that – if the fuel pools at reactor 4 collapse due to an earthquake – people should get out of Japan, and residents of the West Coast of America and Canada should shut all of their windows and stay inside for a while.

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