Risk management means sell now and then hope you are wrong.
It is a mistake to hold when there is an uncertain and developing negative risk. We have that in Japan. Note: measure risk by the size of the evacuation zones around the reactors. That is official feet moving not official mouths talking.
Now to this other issue in a very complicated and fast-moving world. The Saudis have moved troops into Bahrain. They are hoping to suppress the latest chapter in the Shia-Sunni war. This is a contest between Tehran and Riyadh. Iran vs. Saudi Arabia. Shia vs. Sunni. It is nothing less.
See it any other way and you miss the “big picture” (as Barry Ritholtz calls it).
The world is in terrible shape because the developed nations are debt-hamstrung and cannot easily respond to crisis. They can only talk (no fly); they cannot act. “Walk softly and carry a big stick” has morphed into speak loudly and be disbelieved.
И, чтоб не делать отдельный пост, из краткого описания общей ситуации, сделанного до кризиса
Japan has been a key focus of our firm for the last few years. We could spend another 10 pages doing a deep dive into our entire thesis, but for now we are going to stick with the catalysts for the upcoming Japanese bond crisis.