May 3rd, 2009



We are in the middle of a Great Experiment, the one truly great experiment of this time; so the economists are fascinated. We have Keynes versus von Mises versus Irving Fisher versus Friedman, and they all have theories about what you should do after depressions and what works...
We are going to find out in 5-6 years who was right. That is the experiment we are living through. My bet’s on Fisher, just for the record.

... when you become a central banker, you are taken into a back room and they do a DNA change on you. You are henceforth and forever physically incapable of allowing deflation on your watch. It becomes the first and foremost thought on your mind: “Deflation, we can’t have it.”

We have been teaching generations of MBA students economic garbage. Gaussian curves and things you could model. The classic line is from Ibbitson, is a brilliant professor and a brilliant mind, who said economics is a science. No it’s not. It’s barely an art form. It’s voodoo. That’s what we practice.
...Rob recalls standing in front of 200 academics, professors in schools that teach economics. He asked them, “How many of you believe in the efficient market hypothesis?” Something like two or three raised their hands. “How many of you teach it?” All of them raised their hands.

John Mauldin about the crisis. His speech at annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla in two parts:
The Trend May Not Be Your Friend
Back to the Future Recession